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No. 146.
(No. 367) Sir,
Mr. Alston to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received October 6.)
WITH the fall of Nanking and the suppression of the rebellion in Szechuan,
Peking, September 22, 1913. which I have had the honour to report by telegraph, the armed resistance of the opponents of Yuan Shih-kai would appear to have been definitely crusbed. There nevertheless exists a considerable body of opinion which favours the view that the collapse of the agitation against the provisional President is more likely to be temporary than permanent. This view is based in part on the methode employed and the net results obtained by the northern forces during the recent campaign.
It must, in the first place, be conceded that the principal weapon used by the Central Government and its supporters has been bribery. No decisive success in the field was gained by the northern generals nor anything in the nature of a "lesson inflicted on the rebel forces. Desultory fighting, in most cases at ranges which render even the modern rifle inocuous, was followed, in almost every case, by protracted negotiations, resulting in the fixing of a definite price at which the leaders were prepared to be "bought off" and the men to disperse after laying down their arms and receiving a bonus in cash, Both the men of the regular army and the coolies enlisted for the occasion, who fought on the southern side, have, in fact, learnt nothing of the horrors entailed by defeat in the field, but have disbanded, impressed by the pecuniary advantage to be gained by opposition to the forces of the Central Govern ment. To the number of some tens of thousands they are now cast adrift in various parts of the southern provinces, and, failing the unlikely event of their obtaining work as agricultural labourers, cannot but tend to swell the normal forces of disorder should peace be maintained or to join the ranks of any future organised rebellion which may break out.
While the rank and file of the rebel forces have little reason to regret their adherence to the southern cause, their leaders have at least escaped the condign punishment promised them in a series of presidential orders which have from time to time appeared in the "Peking Gazette.' while a definite price has been placed on the heads of others, none of the more While some have been proscribed, and important have been actually captured and executed. To those who deserted the revolutionary movement in its earlier days, a certain monetary benefit has doubtless accrued as the price of their desertion. Others have certainly profited by the forced contributions from mercantile communities which have been reported from almost every point occupied by the rebel forces. In view of the considerable financial assistance which was apparently forthcoming, it is improbable that any of the rebel leaders have sustained serious pecuniary loss, nor, with the exception of the dispossessed Tutus and certain high provincial officials who have lost their positions, have they any more reason than the men whom they lately commanded to regret their opposition to the Central Government. The rebel Tntus together with the other more prominent agitators on the southern side are now enjoying the benefits of a secure asylum abroad, where they will doubtless pursue in peace their efforts to render the position of the provisional President impossible.
In my despatch No. 300 of the 28th July, written soon after the outbreak of the late rebellion, I had the honour to report that there was no sign of the movement having secured the support of any considerable body of public opinion in China. Throughout the course of the campaign this has, in fact, proved to be the case.
While the great body of the working classes remained apathetic, the sympathies both of individuals and corporations connected with trade and commerce were shown to strongly favour the success of the Central Government. At every point where hostilities were threatened the influence of Chambers of Commerce and Mercantile Guilds was invariably wielded on the side of moderation. After hostilities had actually broken out a number of these corporations actively supported the cause of the provisional President, and in some cases made the most serious sacrifices in its defence. If the sympathies of the commercial classes were opposed to political upheaval before the outbreak of the rebellion, it is certain that these sympathies have been strengthened by their experiences during its course. Nearly every town which has been in occupation of the southern forces has been the scene of political murder, extortion, and looting. In some cases victorious northern soldiery, on entering points which had been in possession of the rebels, completed the partial ruin already wrough by their opponents.
The general set-back to trade expansion and commercial
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